2024: The Year of Elections
2024 will see over 60 countries head to the polls. The outcome of these elections has the potential to impact the value of a majority of the world’s top currencies and the stability of the FX market.
February 14, 2024 — 5 min read
Reported by The Economist to be the biggest election year in history, 2024 will see over 60 countries – collectively representing over half of the world’s population – head to the polls. Included are eight of the ten most populous nations in the world.
Not only is this a record-breaking number of elections held within a single year, but many of these elections have been defined as “high stakes”. As Merill Lynch puts it, “Rarely has the geopolitical calendar been so stacked. And rarely have the political stakes been higher[...]”
What’s more, the outcome of these elections has the potential to impact the value of a majority of the world’s top currencies and the stability of the FX market.
Political uncertainty can be one of the key drivers of volatility in a country’s currency value, impacting businesses all around the world. A change in any direction could mean a change in trade and fiscal policies, labor market dynamics, and international relations, which may have far-reaching economic implications for the country whose reigning government has changed, as well as for any country whose currency is closely linked to theirs.
What makes this year’s elections unique, however, is for the first time in known history, we may see the uncertainty that international elections can bring play out on an unprecedented scale.
How exactly the outcome of these elections will shift the geopolitical landscape and define the year ahead for the foreign exchange market is yet to be seen, but we can watch some of the most populous countries’ elections this year and monitor changes as they come.
5 UPCOMING ELECTIONS TO WATCH
1. United States
Alongside substantial elections in the Senate and House, the United States is scheduled to hold its 60th presidential election on the 5th of November 2024 with nearly 160 million Americans registered to vote.
2. India
Between April and May, India will host the world’s largest election. According to the Election Commission of India, over 945 million registered voters – an estimated 65% of India’s entire population – will cast their vote.
3. Mexico
On the 2nd of June, an estimated 96 million registered voters will vote to elect a new president and – for the first time in the country’s history – voters in all 32 states will fill more than 20,000 public positions.
4. European Union
2024 will see the world’s largest transnational election as some 400 million voters across 27 countries will elect 720 members of the European Parliament for five-year terms. Set to take place from the 6th and 9th of June, these parliamentary elections will be the first elections following the U.K.’s departure.
5. UK
The United Kingdom must hold a general election no later than 28th January 2025, anticipating a voter turnout upwards of 3.85 million. However, the government can choose to call an election sooner, and some political analysts have speculated that an election may occur in the second half of 2024.
For a full list of elections scheduled for 2024, see our list below.
MANAGING UNCERTAINTY WITH XE
Running a global business or finance department is challenging enough without the complexities of foreign exchange markets. Our global FX and risk management teams are available to help so you can focus on what really matters, growing your business. They will work with you to identify and quantify the risk to your business, develop a strategy that meets your needs, and implement it. Here are a few of the tools that can help:
Forward contracts
Lock in a rate today and schedule your transfer for a future date. This tool gives your business certainty no matter how the market moves. Learn more here.
Market orders
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Option contracts
Our risk management team can help you explore the option to buy or sell a currency at a set rate on a future date. These contracts provide a level of protection from the market with added flexibility.
Rate alerts
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LET'S TALK
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2024 Election Dates
January:
Bangladesh - 7 January 2024
Bhutan - 9 January 2024
Taiwan - 13 January 2024
Comoros - 14 January 2024
Tuvalu - 26 January 2024
Finland - 28 January 2024
February:
El Salvador - 4 February 2024
Azerbaijan - 7 February 2024
Pakistan - 8 February 2024
Indonesia - 14 February 2024
Belarus - 25 February 2024
Cambodia - 25 February 2024
Senegal - 25 February 2024
March:
Iran - 1 March 2024
North Korea - March 2024
Ireland - March 2024
Portugal - 10 March 2024
Russia - 15 March 2024
Maldives - 17 March 2024
Slovakia - 23 March 2024
April:
South Korea - 10 April 2024
Solomon Islands - 17 April 2024
North Macedonia - 24 April 2024
May:
India - May 2024
Panama - 5 May 2024
Lithuania - 12 May 2024
Dominican Republic - 19 May 2024
June:
Iceland - 1 Jun 2024
Mexico - 2 Jun 2024
European Union - 6 June 2024
Malta - 8 June 2024
Austria - 9 June 2024
Belgium - 9 June 2024
Germany - 9 June 2024
Mauritania - 22 June 2024
Mongolia - 28 June 2024
July:
Rwanda - 15 July 2024
September:
Croatia - 22 September 2024
October:
Botswana - October 2024
Chad - October 2024
Mozambique - 9 October 2024
Canada - 19 October 2024
Georgia - 26 October 2024
Uruguay - 27 October 2024
November:
Namibia - November 2024
Romania - November 2024
United States - 5 November 2024
Palau - 12 November 2024
Somaliland - 13 November 2024
Mauritius - 30 November 2024
December:
Algeria - December 2024
San Marino - December 2024
Ghana - 7 December 2024
TBD:
United Kingdom - TBD
Moldova - TBD
Sri Lanka - TBD
South Ossetia - TBD
South Sudan - TBD
Togo - TBD
Tunisia - TBD
Venezuela - TBD
South Africa - TBD
The content within this blog post is not intended for use as financial advice. This content is for informational purposes only.